Analysis of future self-driving car industry and social impact
In the future, autonomous vehicles will not only be vehicles with transportation functions, but also an important carrier driven by big data, carrying the key missions of smart travel, smart transportation, and smart city development. With the large-scale commercial use of autonomous vehicles, it will not only bring disruptive changes to the automotive industry itself, but will also drive changes in many industries.
1. Impact on the automotive industry
(1) Technical standards will tend to be open
The form of future automobile products cannot be determined. Now we are in a period of transformation of the automobile industry. Various technical routes of autonomous vehicles are developing in parallel, such as bicycle intelligence, vehicle-road coordination, remote control of vehicles, etc., and even whether the means of transportation in the future are still in the current sense. Cars are also unpredictable.
Autonomous driving is impacting the existing travel concept, and product standards will be different from traditional ones and thus more open. At present, some countries have shown an open attitude towards technical standards. The U.S. “Preparing for the Future of Transportation: Autonomous Vehicles 3.0” affirms the U.S. Department of Transportation’s authority to develop motor vehicle safety standards that allow for innovative autonomous vehicle designs, such as those without steering wheels, pedals, or mirrors. Japan has revised safety standards to allow cars without rearview mirrors on the road, which can be replaced with new technologies such as cameras or 360-degree panoramic images.
In addition, there is still a problem of international coordination in the technical standards of self-driving cars. Differences in laws of various countries will directly affect product standards. If China sets a safe following distance for self-driving cars, the self-driving cars produced in China may not be applicable. Foreign traffic laws.
(2) Transformation of production methods to intelligent manufacturing
In the future, self-driving cars will be driven by big data. The feedback and analysis of big data can make the car customize and optimize the configuration according to the travel habits and individual needs of consumers, realize the on-demand design of products, and reduce unnecessary Waste of functionality and cost.
From the perspective of application scenarios, autonomous vehicles can be divided into logistics vehicles, park commuter vehicles, online car-hailing vehicles, and private vehicles. In terms of functions, autonomous vehicles in the future can be completely divided into conference-type, travel-type, catering-type, leisure-type and other products covering a variety of service types. Autonomous vehicles used in different scenarios and cities have different technical requirements for products, and products with different functions and different types of consumer groups have different requirements, such as arid and sandy cities and rainy, hot and hot cities. The technical requirements for vehicles are different, and in cities where the average daily travel distance of residents is short, there is no need to provide long-distance and high-cost online car-hailing vehicles. Diversified product forms make it difficult for autonomous vehicles to adopt the traditional assembly-line large-scale production method, and will shift to multi-variety and small-batch intelligent manufacturing in the future.
(3) Cars will become intelligent mobile terminals
With the maturity of autonomous driving technology and its large-scale commercial application, future automotive products will not only be vehicles that provide transportation and commuting services, but will also become intelligent mobile terminals with basic transportation functions. The automatic driving function completely liberates the hands of the driver, so that the driver does not have to waste time driving, and can save more time for work, study, entertainment and rest.
In the future, the design and production of self-driving cars will break the traditional model and transform into customized intelligent manufacturing. The self-driving car itself has the attribute of mobile private space, and can be built into an intelligent mobile carrier that can provide a variety of services, mobile offices, Scenes such as mobile conference halls, mobile restaurants, mobile hotels, and mobile cinemas can all be presented by means of autonomous vehicles. Consumers can enjoy services that were previously only available in fixed places during travel.
(4) The auto industry ecology ushered in reconstruction
From the point of view of the product itself, the core components of traditional fuel vehicles are mainly engines, gearboxes and transmission systems. In the future, self-driving cars will use electric vehicles as the best carrier, and their core components will be motors, electronic controls, batteries and autonomous driving systems.
Self-driving features will gradually become standard in cars, with the Boston Consulting Group predicting that by 2035, fully self-driving cars will account for nearly a quarter of all new vehicle sales worldwide, and more will be used in specific scenarios. The industrial changes brought about by the rapid development of autonomous vehicles will gradually shift the auto industry ecosystem from traditional auto parts to electrification, intelligence, and networking. Chips, artificial intelligence algorithms, Internet of Vehicles and other technologies will become the core of the industry chain.
The new industrial chain system will replace the traditional fuel vehicle parts system and occupy a dominant position. Enterprises that focus on the core technologies of "three electrics" and key parts of autonomous driving will be pushed to the top of the industrial chain, and the extended secondary parts enterprises and Upstream related raw material companies will also benefit from it and enter the automotive industry chain, and the entire automotive industry ecosystem will usher in reconstruction.
(5) The industrial niche will change
The reconstruction of the industrial ecosystem will also bring about changes in the industrial niche. First, OEMs will no longer be the absolute dominant players in the industry, auto brands will be weakened, and residents will pay more attention to the service capabilities and brands of travel service providers. In the future, OEMs may become polarized. On the one hand, relying on their own technology The ability is stuck in the core field of automobile manufacturing, and on the other hand, it is transformed into services, providing the market with high-quality value based on travel services. Second, the industrial niche of solution suppliers is gradually improving, and a new type of supply relationship will emerge. The boundaries between traditional Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers tend to be blurred, and they will become new solution suppliers together, supplying automobile manufacturers and solution suppliers. The relationship has changed from the traditional procurement, customization, cooperative development and other forms to a new type of supply relationship. Solution providers may play the role of Tier 0.5, and master common and individual technologies with vehicle manufacturers. The third is that self-driving car travel service providers will lead the development of the industry. Travel service providers will grasp the first-hand demand data of users, and lead the car design from the demand side, so as to customize the self-driving cars that are truly suitable for market applications, so as to gain more users. market.
According to reports, the public and battery vehicle technology supplier Provincetown Jomtien US company (ProteanElectric) cooperation, wheel motor technology is expected to promote a new model cell vehicle design and manufacturing.